Defections Won’t Save Tinubu in 2027” — El-Rufai Says Nigerians Will Vote Based on Performance.
Former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, has asserted that the recent wave of governors and political heavyweights defecting to the All Progressives Congress (APC) will not automatically secure President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election in the 2027 general election.
El-Rufai, who was one of Tinubu’s major supporters during the 2023 presidential election, said his experience clearly shows that political influence and party dominance do not always translate into electoral victory. According to him, despite being the sitting governor of Kaduna State at the time and mobilising for Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate still lost the state.
> “I was governor of Kaduna State and one of Tinubu’s major supporters in 2023, but I couldn’t help him win Kaduna State,” El-Rufai said.
He further cited Tinubu’s loss in Lagos State, widely regarded as his political stronghold, despite having an APC governor and long-standing control of the state’s political structure. This, he said, underscores the growing independence of Nigerian voters.
El-Rufai emphasized that 2027 will be determined by governance performance, not by political defections or elite endorsements. He noted that Nigerians are increasingly voting based on issues such as economic hardship, insecurity, unemployment, fuel prices, inflation, and the rising cost of living.
Political analysts say his comments reflect a broader national mood, as many Nigerians feel the impact of current economic reforms. While some argue that party machinery, alliances, and grassroots mobilisation still matter, others believe voter awareness has reached a point where performance will outweigh political maneuvering.
As preparations for 2027 begin, El-Rufai’s remarks have reignited debate over whether political defections can truly shape election outcomes or if Nigerians will ultimately pass judgment based on Tinubu’s record in office.
What’s your view?
Will performance decide the 2027 election, or will political structures still dominate?
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